PREFACE
In the implementation of the State Budget Law and on the basis of the overall State budget plan and central government budget appropriation plan for fiscal year 2024 as proposed by the Government to the National Assembly, the Ministry of Finance herein prepares and releases the "Publication on the Government's 2024 State budget proposal to the National Assembly" to provide timely, complete and accurate information to readers that are interested in the Government's review of the State budget outturn in 2023 and the State budget revenue and expenditure proposal for fiscal year 2024, submitted to the 06th meeting of the National Assembly Session XV, for the latter's review and enactment.
This publication consists of 04 parts:
- Part I: Review of the State budget execution in 2023
- Part II: Proposed State budget plan for fiscal year 2024
- Part III: The 03-year financial - State budget plan for period 2024-2026
- Part IV: Appendix tables of related data
We would like to welcome all inputs and opinions from organizations and/or individuals for increasing efficient and transparent State budget planning process, in contribution to promoting socio-economic development, aiming at the best service delivery to the society and communities.
All comments, inputs and/or queries on this publication should address the Ministry of Finance (the State Budget Department) - No. 28, Tran Hung Dao - Hoan Kiem - Hanoi.
Respectfully./.
Hanoi, October 2023
THE GOVERNMENT'S STATE BUDGET PROPOSAL FOR FISCAL YEAR 2024 SUBMITTED TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
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Part I
REVIEW OF THE STATE BUDGET EXECUTION IN FISCAL YEAR 2023
I. CONTEXT
The financial - State budget mandates for fiscal year 2023 were executed in the context of rapid world developments, increasing uncertainty, complexity, risks and vulnerability; with unraveling Russia - Ukraine conflict, on-going monetary tightening in many countries, declining but still high inflation, increasing vulnerability in financial, monetary and real estate markets, still high energy and commodity prices; slowing global economic growth, as reflected in most major economies; resulting declining import demands from major trade partners to Vietnam, with significant implications on our economy.
On the domestic side, the economy is facing a number of challenges. A part of the business sector is confronted with constraints in their commercial and productive activities, with declining orders and limited access to finance. The real estate market remains sluggish, FDI and domestic private investment flows are losing steam. The climate change is evidenced with lengthy drought, extreme stormy rains and severe landslides in many localities.
With the decisive engagement of the whole of government at all levels and sectors, the active, agile and effective operations of the fiscal policies, monetary policies and other macro policies to support the economy, to ease the challenges of enterprises and people, to promote socio-economic recovery and development, the macroeconomic conditions in the first 09 months remained resilient and recovered positively1, with major economic framework being maintained, inflation under control, economic growth resumed, while the social order and protection were ensured. Economic growth reached 4.24 percent in the first 09 month of 2023 compared to that in the same period in 2022; inflation was strictly controlled (with average CPI inflation at 3.16 percent year over year, and core inflation at 4.49%); total retailed sales of goods and consumer services increased by 9.7%; export surplus reached USD 21.68 trillion, the financial and monetary markets were kept stable. As a nowcast for the whole year, our GDP growth can reach above 5%, which is lower than the original target (at about 6.5%), but relatively high in comparison to that in other global and regional peers2.
II. ASSESSMENT OF STATE BUDGET REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE OUTTURN IN 2023
In view of the socio-economic developments above and the State budget execution in the first 09 month, below is an assessment of the State budget revenue and expenditure outturns for the whole year 2023:
1. The State budget revenue
The State budget revenue was planned at VND 1,620.7 trillion. The estimated outturn for the first 09 month is VND 1,223.8 trillion, which is 75.5 percent of the budget plan, declining by 8.3 percent from that in the same period of 2022.
Considering the estimated revenue outturn in the first 09 months and decisive revenue collection efforts in the remaining month of the year, the State budget revenue outturn can reach VND 1,620.8 trillion, which is the same as the revenue plan as assigned by the National Assembly, declining by 10.7% from the actual outturn in 2022; the ratio of State budget revenue to GDP is estimated to be 15.7%, as particularly set out below:
a) Domestic revenue
The revenue was planned to be VND 1,334.2 trillion. The estimated cumulative actual outturn was VND 1,013.7 trillion in the first 09 month, which is equivalent to 76 percent of the plan, and 3.2 percent lower than that in the same period of 2022.
In view of the actual circumstances, the Ministry of Finance has been taking the lead and collaborating with other national ministries, agencies and sub-national governments to advise the Government and/or the Prime Minister for the promulgation or escalation to relevant authorities to promulgate consistent policies and decisive and effective implementation of policies on exemption, reduction and deferment of tax, fee, charge and land rent payments. At the same time, political guidance was disseminated to accelerate tax and other budget revenue collection efforts early in the fiscal year, in addition to strengthening inspection, auditing, scrutiny, supervision and strict sanctions of non-compliance and frauds in tax return filing and payment. At the same time, the agenda on administrative procedure reforms, digital transformation, modernization, ICT adoption, and e-tax administration were reinforced, in addition to other tax administration measures to step up timely, accurate and full collection of all incurred tax revenues, combats against tax losses, smuggling, trade frauds, transfer pricing, tax evasion, strict collection and reduction of tax arrears. Full collection efforts were exerted to achieve the State budget revenue collection targets in 2023, and to over-realize the targets in favorable localities and industries to offset the revenue foregone due to the implementation of tax relief policies.
In the context of unsatisfactory economic growth, the constrained commercial and productive activities of the business sector, the slow-to-recover real estate markets, compounded with the implementation of tax, fee and land rent exemption, reduction and deferment to support and stimulate economic activities, all have contributed to lower the actual revenue. Domestic revenue outturn is nowcasted to be about VND 1,358.2 trillion in the whole fiscal year 2023, which is VND 23.9 trillion higher (+1.8 percent) than the revenue plan, but 5.9 percent lower than the actual outturn in 2022.
b) Oil revenue
The revenue was planned to be VND 42 trillion, considering the domestic production output of 8 million tons and the selling price of USD 70 per barrel. The actual revenue is estimated to be VND 46 trillion in the first 09 month, which is 109.5 percent of the budget plan, but declining by 22.5 percent from that in the same period in 2022 (the actual oil price averaged USD 86.6 per barrel in the first 09 months, while the payable production output was about 6.5 million tons).
Considering the average annual oil price at USD 88 per barrel, which is up by USD 18 per barrel than in the budget plan, the whole year payable output can be 8.6 million tons, up by 0.6 million tons compared to the plan, the oil revenue is estimated to be VND 62.1 trillion for the whole fiscal year, increasing by VND 20.1 trillion (+47.9 percent), but 20.4 percent lower than the actual outturn in 2022.
c) Net trade revenue
The revenue was planned to be VND 239 trillion, the actual outturn is estimated to be VND 163.8 trillion in the first 09 months, equivalent to 68.5 percent of the budget plan, declining by 26.3 percent from that in the same period in 2022. The decline was mainly attributed to serious year-over-year decline of merchandise exports and imports. The net trade revenue outturn is estimated to be VND 195 trillion for the whole fiscal year, declining by VND 44 trillion (-18.4 percent) from the budget plan, declining by 31.7 percent from the actual outturn in 2022.
d) External grants
The revenue was planned to be VND 5.5 trillion, the outturn was estimated to be VND 0.3 trillion in the first 09 month, which is equivalent to 5 percent of the plan. The whole year outturn is estimated to be the same as planned.
In summary, as estimated for the whole fiscal year 2023, the State budget revenue outturn can reach VND 1,620.8 trillion, the same as planned. Taking into account about VND 75 trillion revenue foregone as a result of the support policies, the State budget revenue outturn for the whole year can reach VND 1,695.8 trillion, which is 4.6 percent higher than the budget plan. Considering a number of post-pandemic challenges in the economy, the fatigue business sector, compounded by a number of tax relief policies to stimulate and support businesses and citizens, the above annual estimate of State budget revenue outturn is assessed as positive.
2. The State budget expenditure
The original State budget expenditure was planned to be VND 2,076.2 trillion; the cumulative 09 month outturn is estimated to be VND 1,239.4 trillion, which is equivalent to 59.7% of the original plan. With concerted efforts in the implementation of measures to accelerate State budget financed public investments, National Targeted Programs, to increase recurrent expenditure savings, to review, consolidate expenditure mandates and cut back on expenditures that are deemed unnecessary, to strictly manage expenditure within budget limits and to increase budget revenue efforts at all levels, the State budget expenditure outturn is estimated to be VND 2,035.9 trillion for the whole year, which is VND 40.3 trillion lower (-1.9 percent) than the budget plan, as particularly set out below:
a) Development capital expenditure
The original budget for capital expenditure is VND 726.7 trillion, as enacted by the National Assembly. The aggregate capital expenditure allocation as authorized by the Prime Minister for fiscal year 2023 is about VND 707 trillion. The capital expenditure outturn is estimated to be about VND 363.3 trillion for the first 09 months, which is equivalent to 50 percent of the capital budget enacted by the National Assembly, or 51.38 percent of the capital budget plan authorized by the Prime Minister, and is 43.5% higher than that in the same period in 20223.
Taking into account the additional resources drawing from the State budget contingency provisions, increased capital expenditure by sub-national governments sourced from their respective over-realized land use charges, lottery service incomes, recovery of State budget investments in sub-national State-owned enterprises and cancellation of externally financed investment projects that were unable to disburse in 2023 in accordance with applicable legislations, the development capital expenditure outturn is estimated to be VND 739.6 trillion for the whole year, which is VND 12.9 trillion (+1.8 percent) higher than the original budget plan. It is targeted that whole year disbursement can achieve 95 percent of the budget plan authorized by the Prime Minister.
b) Interest payment
Interest payment was planned to be VND 102.9 trillion; the cumulative outturn is estimated to be VND 72.3 trillion, equivalent to 70.3 percent of the budget plan. Interest payment is nowcasted to be VND 91.9 trillion, which is VND 11 trillion (-10.7 percent) lower than the budget plan. This is mainly attributed to the fact that the Government bond issuance in 2022 has been managed to be closely aligned with budget revenue collection and public investment disbursement progress, in addition to the under-realization of ODA disbursement, which all contributed to State budget saving of interest payments. Debt service has been made timely and fully as committed, which helped strengthen our sovereign credit ratings.
c) Recurrent expenditure
The original budget for recurrent expenditure was planned to be VND 1,172.3 trillion; the actual cumulative 09 month outturn is estimated to be VND 801.9 trillion, equivalent to 68.4 percent of the budget plan, which is responsive to the requirements for socio-economic development, pandemic control and other social protection mandates to take care of State budget funded salary earners, pension earners and social assistance recipients. Resources were made available for the increase of base salary (i.e. from VND 1,490,000 per month to VND 1,800,000 per month) for State budget funded salary earners, pension earners and social assistance recipients, from July 01, 2023. In addition, nearly 21.56 thousand tons of rice were released from mass stock for disaster recovery, hunger and emergency relief for people.
Recurrent expenditure outturn is estimated to be about VND 1,169.3 trillion for the whole year, which is VND 3 trillion (-0.3 percent) lower than the budget plan.
3. The State budget balance
The original State budget deficit was planned to be VND 455.5 trillion, as enacted by the National Assembly, which is 4.42 percent of GDP, in which the central government budget deficit is VND 430.5 trillion, sub-national government budget deficit is VND 25 trillion.
In view of the above assessment of State budget revenue and expenditure outturns, the State budget deficit outturn is estimated to be about VND 415.2 trillion, which is about 4 percent of GDP, and VND 40.3 trillion lower than that in the original budget.
It is envisaged that as of December 31, 2023, the public debt will be about 39-40 percent of GDP, the Government's direct debt stock will be about 36-37 percent of GDP, national external debt stock will be about 37-38 percent of GDP, the Government's direct debt service obligation will be about 20-21 percent of the total State budget revenue, which are all within the limits as enacted by the National Assembly.
III. ASSESSMENT OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF FISCAL POLICIES TO PROVIDE SUPPORT OF THE ECONOMY, STIMULUS PACKAGE FOR BUSINESSES, MACROECONOMIC STABILIZATION, INFLATION CONTROL, PROMOTION OF ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DELIVERY OF SOCIAL PROTECTION
In addition to the exemption and reduction of taxes, fees and charges, which were promulgated as of end of 2022 and came into force in 2023; in light of the Government's Resolutions and/or the Prime Minister's guidance, in consideration of the challenges of businesses and the whole economy, the Ministry of Finance has been promulgating or escalating to relevant authorities for the promulgation of multiple accommodative policies, including but not limited to 2 percent reduction of value added tax rate (i.e. from 10 percent to 8 percent); reduction of environmental protection tax on petroleum, diesel and lubricants; deferment of value added tax, corporate income tax, personal income tax and land rent payments in 2023; deferment of excise on domestically manufactured or assembled car vehicles; reduction of land rents in 2023; and 10-50 percent reduction of 36 fees and charges,...
The size of the packages on exemption, reduction and deferment of taxes, fees, charges and land rents that were promulgated in 2023 is estimated to be VND 200 trillion (incl. VND 79 trillion from exemption and reduction policies, and VND 121 trillion of deferment policies).
The actual outturn of the above exemption, reduction and deferment is estimated to be about VND 152.5 trillion in the first 09 month, including about VND 49.6 trillion form exemption and reduction policies; VND 102.9 trillion from deferment policies.
IV. KEY ACTIONS FOR SUCCESSFUL ACHIEVEMENT OF THE STATE BUDGET MANDATES IN FISCAL YEAR 2023
To successfully achieve the financial - State budget mandates as enacted by the National Assembly, below are the recommended actions for the remaining months of 2023:
(1) To focus on the implementation of fiscal policy measures, in combination with monetary policies and other macro policies that have been promulgated to support the economy, to ease the challenges of businesses and citizens, to control inflation and maintain macroeconomic stability, so as to bolster major economic framework and strive to best achieve the economic growth target set out for 2023.
To keep reviewing and propose relevant State budget revenue measures in order to ease the challenges of businesses and citizens and to promote economic growth.
(2) To decisively execute State budget revenue mandates; to strive for revenue over-realization in favorable localities and industries so as to offset the revenues foregone due to tax exemption and reduction policies.
(3) To manage State budget expenditure strictly, economically, efficiently and in compliance with the budget plan. To focus on accelerating public investment disbursement so as to achieve 95 percent disbursement of the authorized budget plan.
(4) To strictly control State budget deficit, in an effort to maintain State budget deficit and public debt within the statutory limits as enacted by Resolutions of the National Assembly.
(5) To continue improving the legal framework, surveillance and supervision of market and prices so as to ensure smooth and safe operations of the financial market, securities market and corporate bond market.
(6) To focus on restructuring and boosting business performance of State-owned enterprises; to accelerate the progress of equitization and/or divestment of State capital invested in enterprises, so as to achieve the State budget revenue targets.
(7) To strengthen fiscal and financial discipline in public financial management domain. To reinforce inspection, scrutiny, supervision, to promote public disclosure and transparency in the use of the State budget and public assets.
Part II
PROPOSED STATE BUDGET PLAN FOR FISCAL YEAR 2024
I. WORLD AND DOMESTIC ECONOMIC OUTLOOKS
It is envisaged that the world economy is facing numerous unprecedented risks and challenges; major economies will continue to face slowing down and the risk of depression; while many countries keep tightening their monetary policies; the Russia - Ukraine conflict is on-going with increasing intricacy and no sign of termination, ...
On the domestic side, the economy is expected to return to its growth trajectory in the remaining month of 2023 and in 2024. Many experts and international institutions argue that Vietnam economic growth will face rough times in 2024 but will be positive at the rate of 6-6.5 percent,... The economy, nevertheless, will have to ride out of its endogenous challenges, such as capacity, efficiency and labor productivity, national competitiveness, the climate change, and unconventional security issues,...
II. STATE BUDGET OBJECTIVES AND MANDATES
In light of the global and domestic outlooks and in consideration of socio-economic development requirements and mandates, the objectives of the State budget are set for fiscal year 2023: to formulate and arrange for active and agile implementation of fiscal policies, in a focused manner, in contribution to macroeconomic stability, acceleration of key inter- and intra-regional infrastructure investment projects, to set the stage for economic growth. To make resources available for salary reform and social insurance reform policies in tandem with efforts in organizational restructuring, implementation of the autonomy regimes and right-sizing roadmaps in accordance with the Central Party Resolutions.
III. STATE BUDGET REVENUE AND EXPENDITURE ESTIMATES
In light of the review of State budget execution in 2023, the socio-economic development plan for 2023 (targeting GDP growth to be about 6-6.5 percent, average consumer price index (CPI) inflation to be about 4-4.5 percent, export growth to be about 6 percent in comparison to 2023), below are State budget estimates for fiscal year 2024:
1. State budget revenue estimates
The aggregate State budget revenue is estimated for fiscal year 2024 to be VND 1,700.9 trillion, which is VND 80.1 trillion (about 5 percent) higher than the budget plan and estimated outturn for 2023. The ratio of State budget revenue to GDP will be 15.3 percent, in which the tax and fee revenue ratio will be about 12.2 percent of GDP, as particularly set out below:
a. Domestic revenue is estimated to be VND 1,444.4 trillion, increasing by VND 86.3 trillion from the estimated outturn in 2023, equivalent to 84.9 percent of the total State budget revenue estimate.
b. Oil revenue is estimated to be VND 46 trillion, increasing by VND 4 trillion from the budget plan for 2023, accounting for 2.9 percent of the total State budget revenue estimate, considering the production output of about 8.3 million tons and estimated oil price at about USD 70 per barrel.
c. Net trade revenue is estimated to be VND 204 trillion, equivalent to 12.4 percent of the total State budget revenue estimate. In which, the gross trade revenue is VND 375 trillion, which is 5.6 percent higher than the estimated outturn for 2023; the value added tax refunding is VND 171 trillion, which is VND 11 trillion higher than the estimated outturn in 2023.
d. External grants are estimated to be VND 6.57 trillion.
The above budget estimates are taken from a positive scenario, considering a number of downside risks from both external and domestic sides to socio-economic conditions.
2. State budget expenditure estimates
Below are the State budget allocation principles applicable to fiscal year 2024:
Firstly, make sure that the aggregate development capital expenditure will be allocated higher than the State budget deficit to accommodate the mandates set out in the medium-term public investment plan as stipulated in the Public Investment Law and other development capital expenditure mandates in accordance with the State Budget Law.
Secondly, allocate for full and timely debt interest services, contingency provisions, and allocate for procurement of national in-kind mass stock reserves at relevant level to timely address emergency mandates.
Thirdly, allocate resources for the salary reform implementation in accordance with political guidance by the Central Party; provide resources for upward adjustment of pensions, social insurance benefits for the targeted groups covered by the State budget, monthly allowances and other entitlements for nationally merited people and some other social protection policies to offset price inflation and better entitlements; provide for the implementation of National Targeted Programs and other socio-economic development mandates.
Accordingly, the aggregate State budget expenditure is estimated to be VND 2,100.3 trillion for fiscal year 2024, which is VND 24.1 trillion (+1.2 percent) higher than the budget plan for fiscal year 2023. Taking into account the expenditure earmarked for salary reforms which is carried over from the 2023 balance (i.e. about VND 19 trillion), the aggregate expenditure envelop for fiscal year 2024 will be about VND 2,119.4 trillion, which is tentatively allocated as follows:
- Development capital expenditure is estimated to be VND 677.3 trillion, increasing by VND 108 trillion from that in 2023, accounting for 32.2 percent of the total State budget expenditure.
- Debt interest service will be VND 111.7 trillion, increasing by VND 8.8 trillion from that in 2023 for full and timely interest payments.
- Recurrent expenditure (not including the expenditure to accommodate base salary increase to VND 1.8 million per month for the whole year 2024 and the salary reform in accordance with Resolution No. 27-NQ/TW, from July 01, 2024) estimated at VND 1,175.7 trillion, which is VND 3.5 trillion higher than that in 2023.
3. The State budget deficit
Having been stringently following the target set out in the 05-year national financial plan for period 2021-2025, the State budget deficit for fiscal year 2024 is estimated to be VND 339.4 trillion, which is equivalent to about 3.6 percent of GDP, in which the central government budget deficit will be VND 372.9 trillion, or about 3.4 percent of GDP; the sub-national government budget deficit will be about VND 26.5 trillion, or about 0.2 percent of GDP.
IV. KEY ACTIONS FOR SUCCESSFUL EXECUTION OF THE STATE BUDGET PLAN FOR FISCAL YEAR 2024
Firstly, to continue maintaining robust macroeconomic fundamentals, by controlling inflation, assurance of major economic frameworks, promoting economic growth and sustainable development in all social and economic sectors.
Secondly, to continue improving the institutional and legal framework on State budget revenue, to strengthen revenue administration and strive to achieve the best possible revenue targets to generate adequate resources for socio-economic development objectives.
Thirdly, to continue restructuring State budget expenditure composition, so as to strengthen fiscal discipline and to achieve efficiency gains in State budget management, allocation and utilization in tandem with the achievement of economic restructuring and sustainable development objectives.
Fourthly, to strengthen the efficiency and effectiveness of the political system in tandem with the on-going administrative reform and organizational structuring, right-sizing, and reform of public service delivery unit financing.
Fifthly, to enforce decisively and effectively the agenda on State-owned enterprise restructuring, equitization and divestment in parallel to reforming corporate governance toward advanced standards, accelerating digital transformation for engagement in the digital economy and digital society development strategies.
Sixthly, to ensure stable and sound operations of the financial market and financial service markets, to strictly sanction any non-compliance and to promote equitable competition across types of ownership.
Seventhly, to accelerate the national digital transformation agenda; to continue effective improvement of the business and investment environments, administrative procedure reforms, enhancement of national competitiveness, public disclosure and transparency.
Part III
THE 03-YEAR NATIONAL FINANCIAL - STATE BUDGET PLAN FOR PERIOD 2024-2026
1. Medium-term outlook over 2024-2026
The global growth outlook for the period will be improving compared to the previous years as generally assessed by international institutions. The World Bank (WB) projected that global growth will be 2.4 percent and 3.0 percent respectively in 2024 and 2025; the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the global growth to be 3.0 percent in 2024 and 3.2 percent in 2025.
The above economic outlook remains subject to several challenges and downside risks; including uncertainties of the continued Russia - Ukraine conflict; declining but not yet reigned inflation; volatility in the international financial market and FX market; and the re-emerging technological and trade tensions post Covid-19, ...
On the domestic side, the economic outlook is assessed as satisfactory, with stable macroeconomic conditions, rebounding economic growth. The WB assessed that Vietnam economic growth would gradually improve from Quarter II, 2023 and the next 02 years, with the growth rate projected to be up to 6.5 percent per year, while OECD projected that Vietnam economy would grow robustly at the rate of 6.6 percent in 2023. The transition toward new growth drivers, by improving productivity, quality and performance will help maintain rapid and consistent economic growth in Vietnam.
In addition to the above advantages, Vietnam economy is exposed to several challenges, including external factors and inherent shortcomings, for example the risk of falling backward and into the middle-income trap; unsatisfactory scientific and technological capacity, productivity, efficiency and competitiveness; inadequate participation in the global and regional supply chains, limited capacity to achieve the digital economy and digital society; the aging population; impacts of the climate change, natural disasters, epidemics, environmental pollution that are putting pressure on our financial - fiscal positions.
2. Objectives of the 03-year national financial - State budget plan over period 2024-2026
To formulate and arrange for agile and active implementation of fiscal policies, with focus, in contribution to macroeconomic stability, to accelerate the implementation of strategic breakthroughs for the economy, especially in the development of important, inter- and intra-regional infrastructure systems; to strengthen financial - fiscal discipline; to adopt thrift and anti-wasteful practices and efficient use of public financial resources in combination with mobilization of available resources in the society to promote economic development and delivery of social protection. To make resources available for the agenda of salary reform and social insurance reform in tandem with accelerating organizational restructuring, implementation of the autonomy regime and the right-sizing roadmap in accordance with the Central Party's Resolutions.
3. Indicative 03-year State budget revenue and expenditure framework over 2024-2026
1. On the State budget revenue side: The aggregate State budget revenue for the 03-year horizon over 2024-2026 is estimated to be about VND 5.21 quadrillion, which is 3.8 percent higher than the aggregate State budget revenue for the 03-year period over 2021-2023. The ratio of State budget revenue to GDP is averaged 14.3 percent, of which the tax and fee revenue ratio is about 12 percent of GDP.
2. On the State budget expenditure side: The aggregate State budget expenditure for the 03-year horizon over 2024-2026 is estimated to be about VND 6.51quadrillion, which is equivalent to 110.3 percent of the total State budget expenditure outturn for the 03-year period over 2021-2023.
3. Regarding State budget deficit and public debt: The annual State budget deficit over 2024-2026 will strictly observe the target set out in the 05-year national financial plan for period 2021-2025 and will gradually be narrowed. Public debt as of 2025 will be about 39-40 percent of GDP, which is lower than the statutory ceiling and warning threshold as established by the National Assembly.
4. Some recommendations and proposed measures
a) In the short-term
(1) To keep appreciating the value of analysis, forecasting, and monitoring of market developments; to manage fiscal policies in an active and agile manner; to continue considering and proposing State budget revenue policies and measures relevant to the requirements for international economic integration and economic recovery.
(2) To decisively execute State budget revenue mandates, by striving to achieve or over-achieve the planning targets, and off-setting the revenues foregone as a result of tax and fee exemption, reduction and deferment policies in support of the economy.
(3) To manage State budget expenditure in a stringent, economic and efficient manner. To focus on accelerating public investment disbursement rate.
(4) To strictly control State budget's contingent liabilities, including sub-national government debts, to ensure national financial prudence and security and to achieve efficiency gains in the use of debt finance.
b) In the long- and medium-term
(5) To accelerate actions on economic restructuring for efficient mobilization and allocation of resources.
(6) To continue improving the State budget revenue system, to ensue sustainable revenue composition, comprehensive coverage of all revenue sources, expansion of revenue bases, and relevant revenue raising for the State budget, and contributing to creating fair competition relevant to real practices and our commitments to international integration and international good practices.
(7) To exercise financial - State budget allocation, management and utilization in tandem with improvement of fiscal decentralization and delegation of powers as well as accountabilities of national ministries, agencies and sub-national governments.
(8) To continue the fiscal rule that State budget deficit financing is only used for development capital expenditure; expenditure is only incurred within the affordability of the economy and debt is only borrowed within the solvency of the economy.
(9) To tighten discipline in the management of finance - State budget, public debt, public assets; to strengthen inspection, supervision, scrutiny and auditing; and to step up on anti-corruption and anti-wasteful practices in the management and use of public finance and public assets.
1 Economic growth gradually rebounded, quarter by quarter, with 3.32 percent GDP growth in Quarter I; 4.14 percent growth in Quarter II; and estimated 5.33 percent in Quarter III.
2 Below are the year-to-date GDP growth rates in several countries: 0.9 percent in Quarter I, estimated 0.9 percent in Quarter II in South Korea; 1.3 percent in Quarter I and estimated 0.6% in Quarter II in Japan; 0.4 percent in Quarter I and 0.7 percent in Quarter II in the Singapore; 2.7 percent in Quarter I and estimated 2.6 percent in Quarter II in Thailand …
33 In the same period in 2022, the disbursement amounted to VND 253.1 trillion, which is equivalent to 46.7 percent of the budget plan authorized by the Prime Minister.
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